USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis

USD/CHF – 1.0308

USD/CHF – The (c) leg of wave b from 1.2298 has possibly ended at 0.9910.

Dollar’s strong rebound from 0.9910 adds credence to our view that the wave (c) has possibly ended there and although the greenback retreated from 1.0509 and initial fall to 1.0200 cannot be ruled out, downside should be limited to 1.0100 and bring another rebound later towards 1.0592 (previous support turned resistance), above there would confirm our view and extend headway to 1.0700 later.

Our preferred count is that early selloff to 0.9630 is an end of the larger degree wave (C) and major correction is unfolding from there with a leg of the larger degree wave A ended at 1.2298 (Nov 2008 with (a): 1.0625, (b):1.0011 and (c):1.2298), wave b is now in progress in the form of an (a)-(b)-(c) with (a): 1.0370, (b): 1.1967, (c) is still under way with wave i: 1.1160 , wave ii: 1.1742, wave iii ended at 1.0033 followed by wave iv at 1.0338 and wave v has possibly ended at 0.9910.

On the upside, eventual target is pointing at 1.0885 resistance, once dollar is able to penetrate this level, this would signal the (c) leg has ended and gain to 1.0935 would follow, a daily close above this level would provide final confirmation that entire larger degree wave b is over and bring test of 1.1026.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.0100 would risk weakness to 1.0000, however, it is necessary to see a breach of 2009 low at 0.9910 would signal the final leg of wave (c) is still in progress, then weakness to 0.9800 cannot be ruled out but support at 0.9630 should remain intact.

Based on ActionForex.com Technical Outlook